TECHNOLOGICAL FORECAST: 1975-2000. A DESCRIPTIVE OUTLOOK AND METHOD FOR QUANTITATIVE PREDICTION

The report is divided into two parts. The first part provides a description of expected trends in transportation for both passenger and freight movements for the next 30 years. The second part describes a methodology for forecasting, at an aggregate level of detail and as a function of time value, out of pocket costs and trip distance, the modal split of passengers in a forecast year between 1975-2000. The second part also describes the use of the methodology to examine the probable effects of emphasizing the development of one technology over another. There are also 4 Appendices. Appendix 1 describes a 1965 Passenger Mile Data Base Table, as a function of mode and trip distance. Appendix 2 similarly describes a 1965 Commodity Ton-Mile Data Base Table. Appendix 3 describes the results of a Delphi Forecasting Exercise and Appendix 4 describes the parameters used to define each system used in the modal split.

• Corporate Authors:

  Department of Transportation

  Office of Systems Analysis and Information, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Golding, E I
  • Velona, W D
  • POOLE, G
• Publication Date: 1970-5

Media Info

• Pagination: 369 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Costs; Forecasting; Network analysis (Planning); Passenger transportation; Technological forecasting; Technology; Transportation; Transportation planning
• Uncontrolled Terms: Transportation costs
• Old TRIS Terms: Transportation technology
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00044227
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Files: TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: May 11 1976 12:00AM