Estimation of the distribution of travel times by repeated simulation

In recent years, the reliability of transport systems has been widely recognized as a key issue in transport planning and evaluation. To analyze the level of reliability we need information about the distribution of travel times. Transport analysts are in a serious need for tools to estimate this distribution in hypothetical scenarios, but there are currently few such tools. In this paper we raise the question of whether it is possible to look at the outputs of each single run of a traffic microsimulation model as estimates of traffic conditions on a single day, while accounting for the fact that randomness and heterogeneity are in the nature of traffic phenomena. If it is possible to establish an analogy between a single run and a single day, then the distribution of outputs between runs can be used as an estimate of the respective distribution in the real network. Investigating this issue is vital since many practitioners wrongly assume that such analogy can be taken for granted. We discuss here methodological, statistical and computational aspects that this question brings in, and illustrate them in a series of experiments, where a special procedure for calibrating the microsimulation model has a key role.

• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VGJ-4PP1YK0-1/2/d58646f93719b6fea44f38da075328e6
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/0968090X
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission from Elsevier
• Authors:
  • Hollander, Yaron
  • Liu, Ronghui
• Publication Date: 2008-4

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 212-231
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
  • Volume: 16
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0968-090X
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0968090X

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Calibration; Distributions (Statistics); Methodology; Microsimulation; Statistical analysis; Traffic models; Traffic simulation; Travel time
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01090370
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 21 2008 8:19AM