Quantification of Possible Impacts of Capacity Expansion Projects on Transportation Costs via Trip-Based Full Marginal Cost Estimation Methodology

This paper evaluates the impacts of proposed capacity expansions on the full trip-costs on large transportation networks such as Northern New Jersey. Unlike most previous studies, considering link-based measures only, this study focuses on individual trips to estimate the short-term changes in full marginal costs (FMC). Trips between each origin-destination (O-D) pair are represented as paths determined via a novel constrained kth shortest-path algorithm developed as part of the proposed methodology. Road sections are selected as candidates for capacity expansion based on the FMCs obtained for the whole network, i.e., road sections with highest FMC values are selected. Proposed approach for the before-and-after analysis is illustrated using four road sections (State-Highway (SR) 18, SR-17, SR-3, and Garden State Parkway (GSP)). Transportation costs calculated for before-and-after the capacity expansion and their fitted distributions show that trip-cost between a given O-D pair is not constant; rather it follows a probability distribution whose shape is affected by the road characteristics such as road and area types and number of lanes among other factors. Calculated costs at different probability levels show that highest reductions in the FMC are observed along SR-3 and GSP. Cumulative change in the FMCs of these segments is less than 20% with a probability of 0.95 and less than 15% with a probability of 0.5. This type of analysis gives a different and unique insight to policy planners regarding quantification of transportation costs in worst and best cases, and identification of projects that are most likely to generate highest benefits.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Yanmaz-Tuzel, Ozlem
  • Ozbay, Kaan
  • Mudigonda, Sandeep
  • Bartin, Bekir
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2008-1-13 to 2008-1-17
• Date: 2008

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: DVD
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 21p
• Monograph Title: TRB 87th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Before and after studies; Cost estimating; Marginal costs; Origin and destination; Policy; Systems analysis; Transportation planning; Trip purpose
• Identifier Terms: Garden State Parkway
• Uncontrolled Terms: Expansion projects
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01088443
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 08-2094
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Feb 25 2008 2:32PM