Time-Series-Based Validation Methods for Microscopic Traffic Simulation Models

This paper proposes two time-series based validation methods, spectral analysis for evaluating univariate measure of effectiveness (MOE) and cross-correlation analysis for multivariate MOE. The spectral analysis quantifies and evaluates the autocorrelation after the data have been transformed into the frequency domain. The cross-correlation analysis can evaluate the stochastic relationship between two MOEs. Validation using the spectral and cross-correlation analysis is performed by constructing simultaneous confidence intervals over spectrums and cross-correlations from the field data and comparing that with the simulated spectrums and cross-correlations. The time-series based validation methods do not require the independent and identical distribution assumption, the common basis for classical statistical methods, and are more suitable for field data and simulation results as they are highly autocorrelated. The validation methods are demonstrated using two sets of field data, NGSIM data for I-80 in Emeryville, CA, and FHWA data for I-95 on Baltimore-Washington Parkway using two popular microscopic simulation models, VISSIM and AIMSUN.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Kan, Shengnan
  • Bham, Ghulam Hussain
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2008-1-13 to 2008-1-17
• Date: 2008

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: DVD
• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: 17p
• Monograph Title: TRB 87th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Correlation analysis; Cross correlation; Measures of effectiveness; Multivariate analysis; Research; Time series analysis; Traffic simulation; Validation
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Research; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01091628
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 08-0606
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Apr 23 2008 9:26AM