Traffic forecasting risk study update 2005: through ramp-up and beyond

Over the past three years the credit rating agency Standard & Poor's has published a series of reports reflecting on the performance of traffic forecasts. The original study concentrated on toll roads however, in 2004, data became available to allow for a comparative analysis of the traffic forecasting performance of toll roads with that from toll-free roads. Standard & Poor's 2005 traffic risk study ('Through Ramp-Up and Beyond') further extends our analysis. Until now, our focus has been on the first year of operations - typically a very sensitive time in terms of the generation of project cash flows robust enough to meet construction-related debt repayment obligations. Our 2005 study looks beyond this first year, at forecasting performance in years 2, 3, 4 etc. Some industry observers have commented that our earlier focus on Year 1 of highway operations may have generated results that failed to represent project performance over the longer term. Our 2005 study addresses this issue head-on, with results that may surprise some readers. For the covering abstract please see ITRD E135207.

• Authors:
  • BAIN, R
  • POLAKOVIC, L
• Publication Date: 2005

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 7p
• Serial:
  • PROCEEDINGS OF ETC 2005, STRASBOURG, FRANCE 18-20 SEPTEMBER 2005 - TRANSPORT POLICY AND OPERATIONS - ROAD FINANCE DESIGN AND MAINTENANCE - TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECASTING

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Conferences; Data collection; Forecasting; Hazards; Mathematical analysis; Toll roads; Traffic
• ITRD Terms: 6471: Analysis (math); 8525: Conference; 8623: Data acquisition; 132: Forecast; 9150: Risk; 2702: Toll road; 755: Traffic
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01086929
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Jan 29 2008 9:09AM