Monte Carlo Based Simulation for Managing Risk in End-Result Construction Specifications

End-Result Specifications (ERS) for asphalt pavement construction offer potential benefits over method-related specifications and can be used in conjunction with or replacement of traditional Quality Control (QC)/Quality Assurance (QA) specifications to encourage contractor innovation, reduce agency testing burden, and enhance pavement quality. The quality of pavements is assessed with imperfect measuring tools operated by human operators, who may inadvertently or intentionally introduce measurement variability and/or bias. Payment bonuses and penalties determined based on imperfect measurements would involve risk, which must be understood. Existing methods for assessing risk in pavement construction-related ERS contracts do not properly consider all of the factors affecting risk, and therefore, the administration of such contracts had the undesirable attribute of unknown risk levels. This paper details the development of a simulation tool which can be used to analyze risk and develop ERS systems with user-managed risk levels. The program, called Simulated Risk Analysis (SRA), computes the risk of overpayment (agency risk) or underpayment (contractor risk) as a function of many factors, including: sample size, production and measurement variability, bias, pay formula and pay caps, specification limits, and considers the quality assurance and third-party testing scheme used. For the covreing abstract of this conference see ITRD number E215163.

• Corporate Authors:

  International Society for Asphalt Pavements

  4711 Clark Avenue, Suite G
  White Bear Lake, MN  United States  55110
• Authors:
  • MANIK, A
  • BUTTLAR, WG
• Conference:
  • 10TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ASPHALT PAVEMENTS - AUGUST 12 TO 17, 2006, QUEBEC CITY, CANADA
• Publication Date: 2006

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Pagination: p. vol3,283-94
• Monograph Title: 10th International Conference on Asphalt Pavements - August 12 to 17, 2006, Quebec City, Canada

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bitumen; Conferences; Construction; Contracts; Hazards; Pavements; Simulation; Software; Standards
• Geographic Terms: Canada
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Construction; Highways; Pavements; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01084302
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transportation Association of Canada (TAC)
• Files: TAC
• Created Date: Jan 14 2008 1:49PM