Forecasting and Evaluation of Traffic Safety Impacts: Driving Assistance Systems Against Road Infrastructure Measures

This article reports on a study of the forecasting and evaluation of traffic safety projects in the Netherlands, focusing on driving assistance systems and road infrastructure measures. The authors examine the use of a one-variable first-order grey model (GM(1,1)), to model and forecast the trend of the level of cumulative traffic accident severity for strategic scenarios. The scenarios include implementation of driving assistance systems, physical infrastructure redesign, and combinations of the two categories of measures. The accident severity levels (in terms of fatalities and hospitalizations) of five scenarios for the period 2003-2007 are analyzed and modeled. The five scenarios are implementation of infrastructure redesign program; driving assistance systems by market-pull; driving assistance systems by policy-push and market-pull; combination of partial DVA (Duurzaam Veilige Infrastructuur, which means Sustainably Safe Infrastructure) and driving systems by market pull; and a combination of partial DVI and driving systems by policy-push and market-pull. In addition, the trend of fatalities and hospitalizations for each scenario for the years 2008 until 2010 is forecasted. For further policy evaluation, the costs of each scenario (for the years 2003-2010) are estimated. Driving assistance systems can include speed assistance, navigation, and lane departure warning. The authors conclude that although further implementation of DVI programs may improve traffic safety, they are not cost-effective due to the large investment needed. The scenarios based on application of driving assistance systems are very appealing for enhancing road traffic safety and are much more cost-effective than the combination scenarios. None of the scenarios would achieve the ambitious Dutch policy targets of reduction of fatality and hospitalization levels for 2010.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/1751956X
• Authors:
  • Lu, Meng
  • Wevers, K
• Publication Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 117-123
• Serial:
  • IET Intelligent Transport Systems
  • Volume: 1
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET)
  • ISSN: 1751-956X
  • EISSN: 1751-9578
  • Serial URL: https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/17519578
• Publication flags:

  Open Access (libre)

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Audible warning devices in vehicles; Cost effectiveness; Crash severity; Driver support systems; Fatalities; Forecasting; Global Positioning System; Highway safety; Infrastructure; Lane changing; Marketing; Navigation; Speed control; Speed indicators; Traffic safety; Warning signals
• Uncontrolled Terms: Hospitalization
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; Vehicles and Equipment; I83: Accidents and the Human Factor; I85: Safety Devices used in Transport Infrastructure; I91: Vehicle Design and Safety;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01083215
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 31 2007 7:37AM