Prediction of Trip Distribution by Disaggregate Behavioral Model

This paper considered the problems of predicting trip distributions with disaggregate destination choice models. A new methodology for forecasting origin destination (OD) tables is developed and some important issues to improve the practicality of destination choice models is discussed. The aggregation scheme for producing OD tables with disaggregate models is developed in section 2. It is now possible to introduce total control associated with trip volumes by modification of the utility functions of disaggregate models. An example of this application to a local area in Japan is described in order to evaluate some of the features of the methodology in Section 4. In the case where the use of choice-set is very large, comparison of the sampling methods of choice alternatives reduce the time for estimation of parameters that are carried out in sections 3 and 5. The results indicate to what degree the number of alternatives is reduced and should be determined according to the sampling methods for the sample size. The sample size to calibrate destination choice model and to predict OD tables is discussed in Section 6. The authors found that it is not necessary to use much data when evaluating the prediction errors of OD tables. However, it requires the larger samples to satisfy the statistical reliability of all parameters.

• Corporate Authors:

  University of British Columbia, Vancouver

  Centre for Transportation Studies
  Vancouver, British Columbia  Canada  V6T 1W5
• Authors:
  • Morichi, S
  • Yai, T
• Conference:
  • Research for Tomorrow's Transport Requirements. Proceedings of the Fourth World Conference on Transport Research
  • Location: Vancouver British Columbia, Canada
  • Date: 1986-5-0 to 1986-5-0
• Publication Date: 1986

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 1582-1599
• Monograph Title: Research for Tomorrow’s Transport Requirements

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Choice models; Disaggregate analysis; Forecasting; Origin and destination; Public transit; Transit operating agencies; Trip distribution
• Uncontrolled Terms: Destinations
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01082788
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 18 2007 11:52AM