Simulation-Based Forecasting Effects of an Accidental Explosion on the Road. Part 1: Methodological Framework

Predicting the characteristics and effects of accidental explosions on roads can be helpful in assessing and limiting structural and non-structural damage. This paper first presents a simulation-based procedure designed for selecting the probabilistic models in the absence of statistical data regarding an accidental road explosion. The proposed procedure is designed in the context of a classical Bayesian approach to risk assessment. The premise of the procedure is that statistical samples needed for fitting probabilistic models can be obtained from a stochastic simulation of the accidental road explosion. This proposed simulation-based procedure can then be used for damage assessment and risk studies. The paper also presents a case study illustrating an application of the proposed procedure.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/16484142
• Authors:
  • Vaidogas, Egidijus R
• Publication Date: 2006

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References;
• Pagination: pp 165-171
• Serial:
  • Transport: Research Journal of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University and Lithuanian Academy of Sciences
  • Volume: 21
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
  • ISSN: 1648-4142
  • EISSN: 1648-3480

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crashes; Explosions; Mathematical models; Simulation
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01042924
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: UC Berkeley Transportation Library
• Files: BTRIS, TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 1 2007 1:19PM