The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains with Stochastic Dynamics

This paper analyzes the bullwhip effect in single-echelon supply chains operated nondeterministically. The supply chain is modeled as a Markovian jump linear system driven by arbitrary customer demands. The paper presents robust analytical conditions to diagnose the bullwhip effect, and bound its magnitude. The tests are independent of the customer demand. Examples are given. Policies that pass these tests, and thus avoid the bullwhip effect in random environments for arbitrary customer demands, are shown to exist. The paper also presents extended tests for multi-echelon chains.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Ouyang, Yanfeng
  • Daganzo, Carlos F
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2007-1-21 to 2007-1-25
• Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References;
• Pagination: 26p
• Monograph Title: TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Customer service; Customers; Demand; Dynamics; Markov processes; Stochastic processes; Stochastic programming; Supply; Supply chain management
• Uncontrolled Terms: Supply and demand
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01047534
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 07-3033
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: May 2 2007 1:01PM