Estimating Active and Former Drivers: Critical Link in Understanding Future Travel Demand

For generations since World War II, the ability to operate a car has become synonymous to experience enhanced levels of livability and consumption. Understanding how many seniors will be licensed and actively driving in future decades may provide insight into the level of well-being and mobility of these senior populations. To comprehend a potential future senior mobility market (for the year 2030), study objectives seek to determine the number of seniors holding drivers licenses and estimate the proportion of seniors who may have ceased from driving. Estimated driver licensing results indicate that 66 million seniors will be licensed in 2030, compared to 27 million in 2000, a 244 percent increase in three decades. A worse-case estimate of driving cessation in 2030 indicates that 1 in 4 senior drivers ages 70+ years may be in need of transportation alternatives. The substantial growth in the numbers of senior female drivers is a positive development, indicative of high levels of mobility. To the estimated numbers of former drivers must be added those seniors who were never licensed and remain unlicensed. Will friends and family facilitate the mobility needs of these seniors? Or will alternative transportation providers, rise to meet the mobility challenges in a post-cessation era? The scenarios described underscore the importance of a better understanding and preparedness to meet these potential mobility challenges of seniors, which, in turn, will impact the welfare and functioning of future societies.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Page, Oliver
  • Polzin, Steven E
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2007-1-21 to 2007-1-25
• Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 12p
• Monograph Title: TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Aged drivers; Demographics; Driving cessation; Mobility; Socioeconomic factors; Traffic forecasting; Transportation policy; Travel demand
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Safety and Human Factors; Society; I21: Planning of Transport Infrastructure;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01046869
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 07-2561
• Files: BTRIS, TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Apr 25 2007 1:47PM