Continuous Departure Time Models: A Bayesian Approach
Models of departure time presently rely on discrete choice or simple proportions across blocks of time within a 24-hour day. Duration models allow for more flexible specifications to explain both unimodal (one-peak) and multi-modal (multi-peak) data, which are common in (aggregate) departure time data. This paper offers Bayesian estimates of continuous departure time models using accelerated failure time (AFT) specifications for various trip purposes with several distributional specifications, including the lognormal, Weibull, Weibull (with and without unobserved heterogeneity), and a mixture of normals. The home-based work (HBW) and non-home -based (NHB) trip models are modeled using unimodal distributions, while the home-based non-work (HBNW) trip departure times are modeled via a bi-modal distribution. The results indicate that a Weibull with unobserved heterogeneity performs well among unimodal distributions, and that multi-peak profile can be modeled well with a mixture of normals.
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Gadda, Shashank C
- Kockelman, Kara M
- Damien, Paul
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2007-1-21 to 2007-1-25
- Date: 2007
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: CD-ROM
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 24p
- Monograph Title: TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Bayes' theorem; Departure time; Time; Time duration; Trip generation; Trip purpose; Weibull distributions
- Uncontrolled Terms: Discrete choice; Discrete choice models; Duration modeling; Home offices
- Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01046481
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 07-1843
- Files: TRIS, TRB
- Created Date: Apr 25 2007 1:44PM