Modeling the Severity of Fatal Train Accidents in Great Britain Using Ordered Probit Models

The objective of this paper is to examine and quantify factors affecting the severity of fatal train collisions, derailments and overruns on running lines of the national railway system of Great Britain in 1967 to 2005.There were 80 such accidents with 320 fatalities in the 39 years. Two ordered probit models are developed, one based on all accidents, and one based on passenger trains only. The results suggest that the statistically significant factors are the impact speed of the train during accident, the rolling stock of train, and the type of train (either multiple units or locomotive-hauled) in both models. Interestingly, the variable representing fatal train accidents related to SPADs was not found to be statistically significant in either model. The inclusion of the time trend variable (using both linear and exponential growth trends) in the models indicated that the severity of fatal train accidents did not change over time. It is worthwhile to note that this trend variable took into account the control for any unobserved effect on the severity of fatality over time. The estimation of marginal effect indicates that each additional 10 km/h of impact speed decreases the probability of a low fatality accident by 0.08 and increases the probability of a medium fatality accident by 0.08 and the probability of a high fatality accident by 0.005, while all other variables in the model remain unchanged. The probability of a medium fatality accident is 0.28 lower for modern rolling stock than for older rolling stock and the probability of a medium fatality accident is 0.32 higher for multiple units train than for locomotive-hauled train.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Quddus, Mohammed
  • Evans, Andrew Wyndham
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2007-1-21 to 2007-1-25
• Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 18p
• Monograph Title: TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Derailments; Fatalities; Locomotives; Probits; Railroad crashes; Railroad rails; Railroad safety; Railroad transportation; Railroads
• Uncontrolled Terms: Impact speed; Train-to-train collisions
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• Subject Areas: Railroads; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01045982
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 07-1516
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Apr 10 2007 9:22AM