The Trend Toward Use of Smaller Trucks: Modeling Historical Urban Truck Movements

This study investigates how truck flow characteristics have changed over time in the Region of Peel, a region just west of Toronto that is considered to be a manufacturing, warehousing and goods movement/logistics hub for the Greater Toronto Area. Various economic indicators are investigated to determine which are most closely related to truck volumes and multivariate regression models are then developed to predict heavy and medium trucks on arterial roads and freeways. These models are used to help explain some remarkable recent trends in truck movements. In addition to substantial rates of growth in non-recessionary periods from 1981 to 2004, there has been a notable shift from heavy to medium trucks in the last 5 years. This study has tested, but has found no evidence that this is due to congestion, but rather that it can be at least partially explained by the increased urbanization of the Region of Peel and increasing diesel fuel prices. A series of multivariate models have been developed for heavy and medium trucks on freeways and arterial roads. The most credible set of models tested are functions of the regional population, the unemployment rate, the value of international exports from the province of Ontario, and the real price of diesel fuel. While these models do not completely explain the dramatic shift from heavy to medium trucks in the period from 2001 to 2004, the models do predict a more gradual, sustained shift from heavy to medium trucks as the population of the region continues to grow. This analysis is considered to be a useful benchmark forecast that can be used to augment more spatially detailed modeling efforts for the Greater Toronto Area.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • McCabe, Stephanie
  • Kwan, Helen
  • Roorda, Matthew J
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2007-1-21 to 2007-1-25
• Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 20p
• Monograph Title: TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Multivariate analysis; Traffic flow; Traffic volume; Truck driving; Truck routes; Truck traffic; Trucking; Trucks; Trucks by weight; Urban highways; Urban transportation
• Geographic Terms: Toronto (Canada)
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Freight Transportation; Highways; Motor Carriers; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01046388
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 07-1039
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Apr 25 2007 8:09AM