Static Versus Dynamic and Aggregate Versus Disaggregate: A Comparison Between Practice and Research in Hurricane Evacuation Travel Demand Modeling

Current practice in hurricane evacuation demand estimation involves the estimation of the total evacuation demand in the first step followed by the estimation of its temporal distribution in the second. Participation rate models are the primary method to estimate evacuation demand and response curves are used for the temporal distribution. The recently-developed sequential logit model provides estimates of dynamic disaggregate travel demand for hurricane evacuation. Using data from hurricane Andrew collected from southeast Louisiana, hurricane evacuation demand using models from practice and research were compared. The participation rate models developed for the region by PBS & J and response curves commonly used in such studies were used to compare with results from the sequential logit model, and the reported estimation from the survey. The sequential logit model produced more accurate estimates of participation rates at both parish and regional levels. It also produced more realistic temporal distribution than the commonly used response curves, which is important for dynamic traffic assignment that requires accurate dynamic travel demand as input. The study demonstrated the superiority of the sequential logit model over the traditional two-step method in modeling hurricane evacuation travel demand.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Fu, Haoqiang
  • Wilmot, Chester G
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2007-1-21 to 2007-1-25
• Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 20p
• Monograph Title: TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Advanced traffic management systems; Disaggregate analysis; Disaster preparedness; Emergency management; Evacuation; Hurricanes; Logits; Static and dynamic tests; Transportation planning; Travel demand; Travel demand management
• Identifier Terms: Hurricane Andrew, 1992
• Uncontrolled Terms: Emergency evacuations
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01047313
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 07-0646
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Apr 30 2007 8:07AM