The Use of Predictive Modeling for Tendering Long-Term Maintenance Contracts

In Australasia (Australia & New Zealand) road asset owners and road controlling agencies are seeking greater certainty in financial planning and cost optimization. This trend is leading to longer term and more encompassing road maintenance contracts. These contracts are typically for periods of 10 years and include not only routine pavement and corridor maintenance, but also pavement rehabilitation and resurfacing as well as other asset management and coordination roles historically undertaken by the asset owner and for a lump sum. In Australasia approximately 13 of these contracts are currently in place of which Opus International Consultants has been involved with tendering for 11 of them. The way these contracts have developed is that the asset owner sets target asset condition values that must be maintained throughout the contract period. Opus has identified that an essential aspect of preparing a lump sum price for a long-term contract is understanding and having some certainty as to how road pavements will perform throughout the contract period. A method of achieving this certainty is through the development of a predictive model. Once a predictive model has been developed and its certainty established, then it can be used to determine programs of works, contract prices and most importantly levels of risk. This paper outlines some important considerations for predictive modeling when preparing a long-term maintenance tender.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0971174016
• Corporate Authors:

  University of Washington, Seattle

  Engineering Professional Programs, 10303 Meridian Avenue North #301
  Seattle, WA  United States  98133-9483
• Authors:
  • Hatcher, Wayne
• Conference:
  • Fifth International Conference on Managing Pavements
  • Location: Seattle Washington, United States
  • Date: 2001-8-11 to 2001-8-14
• Publication Date: 2001-8

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: Figures;
• Pagination: 15p
• Monograph Title: Fifth International Conference on Managing Pavements, August 11-14, 2001, Seattle, Washington. Conference Proceedings

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Contracts; Corridors; Costs; Highway maintenance; Pavement maintenance; Rehabilitation; Resurfacing
• Uncontrolled Terms: Predictive models
• Geographic Terms: Australasia; Australia; New Zealand
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Design; Finance; Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Pavements; I10: Economics and Administration; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways; I23: Properties of Road Surfaces; I61: Equipment and Maintenance Methods;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01037826
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0971174016
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 4 2006 9:11AM