A Nonlinear State Space Approach to Arterial Travel Time Prediction

The study uses time series and the Kalman prediction techniques along with modern technology such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) for accurate data collection and analysis. A greater understanding of travel time will help facilitate traffic system performance monitoring, control, planning, and informed route decisions for motorists accessing information from changeable message signs (CMS). The models used for estimations include the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the autoregressive moving average (ARMA). The study collects travel data for the peak hours of travel (3:30-5:00 p.m.) over an eight-month period on the busiest section of Highway 194 in Duluth, Minnesota. The predictions were conducted over two weeks during the summer of 2005. Observed and predicted travel times are charted carefully and report evaluations determine the success of the study.

• Record URL:
  • https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14153/mndot.2617
• Record URL:
  • http://www.dot.state.mn.us/research/TS/2006/200605.pdf
• 
• Corporate Authors:

  University of Minnesota, Duluth

  Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 1023 University Drive
  Duluth, MN  United States  55812-3009

  Minnesota Department of Transportation

  395 John Ireland Boulevard
  St Paul, MN  United States  55155
• Authors:
  • Yang, Jiann-Shiou
• Publication Date: 2006-2

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Edition: Final Report
• Features: Figures; Maps; Photos; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 73p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Data collection; Global Positioning System; Kalman filtering; Nonlinear systems; Time series analysis; Travel time; Variable message signs
• Identifier Terms: ARMA (Auto-Regressive Moving Average model); Travel Time Prediction System
• Uncontrolled Terms: Traffic system performance; Travel data
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01030731
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: MN/RC-2006-05
• Contract Numbers: (c) 81655 (wo) 130
• Files: TRIS, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Aug 14 2006 4:22PM