Numerical Examination of Freeway Rear-End Accidents Considering Mechanism Of Accident Occurrence

This study applies a microscopic approach for modeling the risk of freeway rear-end accidents by considering the occurrence mechanism of rear-end accidents. The probability of occurrence of a rear-end accident is expressed by the product of the probability of a leading vehicle becoming an obstacle (Po) and the probability of the following driver's failure to avoid a collision (Pf). Both traffic flow and freeway design characteristics are included in the model. Compared with most existing models, this model has two major advantages: 1) it directly considers a driver's response time distribution; and 2) it applies a unique model structure that is capable of modeling the dual impacts of one variable to both. Using observed rear-end accident data in Washington State, this accident risk model is estimated by maximum likelihood using a modified negative binomial regression form. Eight different explanatory variables are found significant in the model. This model is potentially useful for accident risk prediction and safety plan evaluations for freeways.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Ulfarsson, Gudmundur Freyr
  • Wang, Yinhai
  • 0000-0002-4180-5628
  • Kim, Joon-Ki
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 85th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2006-1-22 to 2006-1-26
• Date: 2006

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: 18p
• Monograph Title: TRB 85th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash risk forecasting; Crashes; Freeways; Highway design; Probability; Reaction time; Rear end crashes; Traffic flow; Traffic flow rate
• Uncontrolled Terms: Negative binomial regression
• Geographic Terms: Washington (State)
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I80: Accident Studies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01024777
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 06-0967
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: May 30 2006 3:16PM