RES, a network disaggregate model for road risk

This paper deals with a model for road risk, developed for the French Road Safety Observatory, under two contracts concluded between the Ministry of Transportation, the University and INRETS. According to the Drag-type approach, time series modelling including exogenous variables has been applied on a monthly basis to the triangle 'risk exposure/risk/gravity', for the period 1975-1999. The model related to the monthly number of injury accidents and fatalities, aggregated on the whole territory, and disaggregated by road network (main roads, motorways, secondary roads, urban network), is described. The exogenous variables measure risk exposure, the climatic conditions and the calendar configuration. The elasticity values of the numbers of injury accidents and fatalities with respect to these determinants are discussed, and compared with the values obtained in the literature. Examples are given of the road safety indicators evolution over the period, and the performance of the model is discussed. Special attention is paid to the climate influence. On both main roads and motorways, the two networks on which the traffic volume is measured, the climate effect is separated into two parts: a direct effect, due to modification of driver behaviour, and an indirect effect through risk exposure. The results obtained, related to temperature, rainfall and frost, are discussed. For the covering abstract see ITRD E126595.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0860503429
• Authors:
  • BERGEL, R
• Publication Date: 2003

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: unpaginated
• Serial:
  • PROCEEDINGS OF THE EUROPEAN TRANSPORT CONFERENCE (ETC) 2003 HELD 8-10 OCTOBER 2003, STRASBOURG, FRANCE
  • Publisher: Association for European Transport (AET)
  • ISSN: 1474-9122

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Arterial highways; Conferences; Crashes; Freeways; Frost; Hazards; Mathematical models; Rain; Temperature; Weather
• Uncontrolled Terms: Causes
• Geographic Terms: France
• ITRD Terms: 1643: Accident; 9003: Cause; 8525: Conference; 8036: France; 2585: Frost; 2748: Main road; 6473: Mathematical model; 2752: Motorway; 2507: Rain; 9150: Risk; 6722: Temperature; 2545: Weather
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I80: Accident Studies; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01014684
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• ISBN: 0-86050-342-9
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Dec 22 2005 3:08PM