A Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emission Trends from Car Travel: Great Britain 2000-2030

A useful starting formula to investigate driving forces of changes in an environmental impact is the so-called I=PAT (Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology) identity. This study projects carbon dioxide emissions from car travel in Great Britain over the period 2000-2030, by building various scenarios based on the I=PAT identity. The results reveal the difficulty of achieving a modest carbon dioxide target set in this study by changing either affluence factor or technology factor alone. In addition, even in the most optimistic scenario of changes in affluence and technology factors, it is very difficult to achieve the carbon dioxide target as early as 2010. Meeting the CO2 target by 2030 is possible under the following conditions: (1) a rapid transition to alternate fuel vehicles in the new car market should be accompanied with various efforts to reduce car trip rates; and (2) if the growth of average distance per car trip is restrained and car trip rates are reduced more substantially.


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  • Accession Number: 01000436
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: May 27 2005 8:38AM