COULD IT HAPPEN HERE?

The December 2004 tsunami that struck southern Asia has led to increased attention on whether such a calamitous event could happen in the United States. This article discusses recent developments in the modeling of tsunami waves and the analysis of their potential economic consequences for the southern California region. Although California has not suffered any tsunami damage since 1964, geological and engineering studies suggest that such an event is possible. To calculate the economic effects of tsunami inundation, a methodology is presented that distributes the total economic effects of tsunami damage to households and businesses throughout the metropolitan area. This approach makes it possible to calculate the economic consequences associated with a variety of scenarios, including changes to export modes. The results suggest that direct, indirect and induced costs of a devastating tsunami, together with the costs arising from transportation delays, could range from $7 billion to $40 billion for the southern California region.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/10480594
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Page range: pp 54-65, 133
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  1801 Alexander Bell Drive
  Reston, VA  United States  20191-4400
• Authors:
  • Borrero, J
  • Cho, Soojin
  • Moore II, J E
  • Richardson, H W
  • Synolakis, C
• Publication Date: 2005-4

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; Tables;
• Pagination: 13 p.
• Serial:
  • Civil Engineering
  • Volume: 75
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 0885-7024
  • Serial URL: http://www.pubs.asce.org/ceonline/newce/html

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Cost estimating; Disasters; Economic analysis; Engineering; Exports; Forecasting; Geological oceanography; Methodology; Transportation; Tsunamis
• Geographic Terms: Southern California
• Subject Areas: Economics; Geotechnology; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; Society; Transportation (General); I10: Economics and Administration; I42: Soil Mechanics;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00989125
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 30 2005 12:00AM