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https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/27432/critical-issues-in-transportation-for-2024-and-beyond

ROAD SAFETY UP TO YEAR 2020

TIELIIKENTEEN TURVALLISUUS VUOTEEN 2020

The aim of this study was to assess the factors contributing to road safety in the past and in future and to sketch an outlook to the year 2020 in Finland. The factors were grouped into seven categories: population, national economy, transport costs, road infrastructure, regulation of the system, vehicles and transport volume. The main change considering population is ageing, and by the year 2020 nearly one out of four will be over 65 years old. Other important changes will take place for instance due to the development of telematics and the actions taken by decision-makers in transport and other sectors. The growth in the number of vehicles and free driving speeds led to an increase in the number of traffic accidents in the 1960s. The peak was reached in 1972. With the actions taken thereafter the number of road casualties fell from 1156 to 551 in year 1980. It was not until in 1990s when the number of casualties dropped again. In the year 2000 the number of casualties went under 400. Between the years 1970 and 2002 over 21 000 were killed and over 350 000 were injured in road traffic. The cost of road accidents to the society is estimated to be about 3 billion euros annually. The vision set for the road transport system is that no-one should be killed or severely injured in traffic. The goals for the near future are that in year 2007 there should be no more than 290 and in year 2010 less than 250 road casualties. Road safety development was analyzed in age groups, road user groups and sexes. The future development was also approached in two scenarios and in a regional study with three different areas. Trend extrapolations made for different groups showed that if the trend from 1970 to 2002 continued, 15-24 and over 65-year-olds, passenger cars' group and men would have the highest risk in the year 2020. Extrapolations demonstrate which groups have had slower development than others and therefore need special actions. For example the differences between men and women should be taken better into account in education and communications. The trend extrapolations made with the risk related to transport volume and with a forecast of transport growth revealed hindering transport growth as an important road safety action. The three population based extrapolations show 216-265 road casualties in the year 2020 and the risk-based extrapolation 156 casualties. The two scenarios made in the study represent a positive and a negative alternative for road safety development in future. In the first scenario different organizations - including companies - co-operate and a new taxation system guarantees more resources for instance for traffic control. In the second scenario the growth of economy and transport volume is fast and road safety becomes just a goal among others. The best way to deal with the different road safety problems is regionally and locally. A certain problem can be dealt in a team where the members are from communities, Road Administration, police, driving school etc. Big challenges in the national level are for example financing road safety work and solving problems related to passenger cars.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Finnish Road Administration

    Opastinsilta 12 A, P.O. Box 33
    Helsinki,   Finland  FI-00520
  • Authors:
    • POLLANEN, M
    • MANTYNEN, J
  • Publication Date: 2004

Language

  • Finnish

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00984490
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
  • ISBN: 951-803-227-0
  • Files: ITRD
  • Created Date: Jan 7 2005 12:00AM