COMPARISON OF THE USEFULNESS OF TWO MULTIREGIONAL ECONOMIC MODELS IN EVALUATING TRANSPORTATION POLICIES

This report describes and compares two large-scale economic-forecasting models--the multiregional input-output model developed by Polenske and the multiregional, multi-industry forecasting model developed by Harris--to examine their usefulness for transportation planning at national, state and local levels. The models use fundamentally different methods of economic forecasting, and thus have different appropriate applications. Both the Polenske and the Harris models are currently used in analyzing regional economic activity by industrial sectors. A basic difference is that the Polenske model is used mainly for analyzing the effects of changes in interindustry trade flows between regions, whereas the Harris model is used mainly in forecasting regional growth and evaluating effects of alternative highway and other transportation systems. The Polenske model provides a framework for describing and analyzing the sales and purchases of all industries in every region of the economy and has been used to analyze the role of trade in the economic growth of particular regions, such as the California-Oregon-Washington region, as compared to the rest of the United States. The Harris model is designed to make both short-run and long-run forecasts of economic growth. Because it provides a frame-work for analyzing interindustry purchases, it has been used to evaluate the regional economic and environmental effects of alternative highway systems. /Author/

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1977/634/634-004.pdf
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Social, Economic, and Environmental Factors of Transportation. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Authors:
  • Coulter, H Theresa
• Publication Date: 1977

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 20-26
• Monograph Title: Predicting and measuring impacts of transportation systems
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 634
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Commodities; Economics; Environment; Forecasting; Freight traffic; Highways; Industries; Input output devices; Mathematical models; Motor carriers; Origin and destination; Piggyback transportation; Statistics; Traffic forecasting; Transportation planning; Transportation policy
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Old TRIS Terms: Commodity statistics
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Freight Transportation; Highways; Motor Carriers; Policy; Railroads; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00173184
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309026601
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: May 3 1978 12:00AM