PREDICTION OF DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT COSTS OF CIVIL AIRLINERS

In this paper the authors describe some of the methods they use in predicting aircraft development costs. The historical background against which the methods have evolved is reviewed, and some of the problems encountered in the application of these methods are discussed. The methods fall into three classes -- namely, empirical, statistical, and so-called "experiential" , the fundamental principle is that the project is broken down into a hierarchical tree of work elements or tasks, appropriate to the stage of project definition being considered, with estimates then being made for each individual task. Of the three methods of estimating design and development the 'experiential' method of summating assessments of the smallest task elements relevant to the stage of the project suffers least, in the authors' experience, from uncertainty and is the most likely to give a result of acceptable accuracy. In addition, and equally important, it provides a firm base for planning and control and it is the only method which can be subjected to reasoned examination.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00019240
• Corporate Authors:

  Royal Aeronautical Society

  4 Hamilton Place
  London S1V 0BQ,   England 
• Authors:
  • Harrold, K C
  • Nicol, S I
• Publication Date: 1977-4

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: p. 139
• Serial:
  • Aeronautical Journal
  • Volume: 81
  • Issue Number: 796
  • Publisher: Royal Aeronautical Society
  • ISSN: 0001-9240

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Aircraft; Civil aviation; Costs; Design; Forecasting; Planning; Statistical analysis
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Design; Finance; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00172738
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Engineering Index
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 14 1978 12:00AM