A DYNAMIC PROGRAM FOR MINIMUM COST SHIP ROUTING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

The minimum cost ship routing system, consisting of a series of computer programs to prepare the input data, perform route optimization and retrieve the expected trajectories was developed around a stochastic dynamic programming algorithm. The input environmental data is derived from the directional wave spectra and other weather products forecasted by the Fleet Numerical Central of the U.S. Navy. The ship motion response characteristics are in the form of Response Amplitude Operators calculated by the M.I.T. 5-D ship motion program developed at the Department of Ocean Engineering. The routing optimization program implemented on an IBM 370/168 computer at the Information Processing Center requires 170 K core region and 2.5 CPU minutes which amounts to $40 per run at M.I.T. price for a typical Trans-Atlantic voyage. By incorporating a modified open-loop control strategy to update the recommended route several times during a voyage, the system is economically feasible if 1% of the fuel cost saving can be realized. The algorithm has retained enough flexibility for carrying out sensitivity studies on the feasible state space discretization. Ways and means for model calibration under real operating conditions are outlined. Test and evaluation methods are also recommended for future real-time implementation.

• Corporate Authors:

  Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  Department of Ocean Engineering, 77 Massachusetts Avenue
  Cambridge, MA  United States  02139
• Authors:
  • Chen, HHT
• Publication Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Computer programs; Costs; Economic analysis; Fuels; Routing; Ship management; Ship motion; Ships; Weather forecasting; Weather routing
• Uncontrolled Terms: Fuel costs; Ship routing
• Old TRIS Terms: Ship response
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Finance; Marine Transportation; Operations and Traffic Management; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00173913
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• Report/Paper Numbers: PhD Thesis
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: May 3 1978 12:00AM