PREDISPOSING CONDITIONS FOR SERIOUS ROAD CRASHES (BAYESIAN AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ROAD CRASH RISK)

A model is proposed to express in probabilistic terms the increased risk of being involved in a road crash when certain 'unhelpful' prior conditions hold. These are many and varied but it is suggested that, in most circumstances, at least three such conditions are present before a typical crash occurs. One of these priors is, of course, speeding. But the notion that 'speed kills' needs substantial modification for speed to be a, or the, prime cause of a crash. The priors considered form three groups: 'sentiment' priors and 'action' priors - or, 'how I felt' and 'what I did' - and chronic highway audit deficiencies. The reporting of current crashes in the mass media is very restricted; immediacy is nearly always lost because of a reluctance to attribute blame in print. The opportunity for the public to learn from crashes is deferred until the court hearing is reported. By that stage, the emphasis has shifted to the long-term outcomes for survivors rather than just how the crash occurred and how similar ones may be avoided. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E210528.

• Corporate Authors:

  University of South Australia, Adelaide

  Transport Systems Centre, GPO Box 2471
  Adelaide,   Australia  5001
• Authors:
  • DYSON, C
• Conference:
  • CONFERENCE OF AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTES OF TRANSPORT RESEARCH (CAITR), 25TH, 2003, ADELAIDE, SOUTH AUSTRALIA
• Publication Date: 2003

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 11 p.
• Serial:
  • Issue Number: 25-2003

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Behavior; Conferences; Crashes; Drivers; High risk drivers; Mathematical models; Prevention; Probability; Risk taking; Safety; Statistics
• Uncontrolled Terms: Causes
• ITRD Terms: 1643: Accident; 1661: Accident prevention; 2279: Accident proneness; 9001: Behaviour; 9003: Cause; 8525: Conference; 1772: Driver; 6473: Mathematical model; 6534: Probability; 2259: Risk taking; 1665: Safety; 6555: Statistics
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00975716
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Files: ITRD, ATRI
• Created Date: Jul 7 2004 12:00AM