POLICY ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING MODELS FOR U.S. DOMESTIC AIR CARGO MOVEMENTS

This study describes the modification and extension of a new disaggregate simulation freight demand analysis model, developed at the MIT Center for Transportation Studies, for analysis of air cargo. This model system utilizes existing published data in a sampling and simulation framework to develop estimates of modal shares for individual commodity groups in any specified U.S. domestic city pair market. Firms are assumed to minimize "total logistics cost", including storage, capital carrying and stockout costs as well as transport charges, in making modal choice decisions. The results of these individual decisions are accumulated and used to develop modal share estimates, which can then be used in preparing aggregate forecasts of modal flows. This study clearly demonstrates the feasibility of extending this demand analysis model to include analysis of air cargo. A description of the air cargo industry structure, and review of freight modelling data sources are presented. A critical review of previous work in air cargo demand analysis, along with pertinent work for surface modes, is then presented. After an explanation of the theoretical basis for the model system and its implementation, the extension of the model to air cargo analysis is described. A detailed analysis of the air cargo tariff structure is presented. Using a 1974 sample of domestic airbills, a variety of regression equations are estimated, which relate shipment rate to characteristics of the shipment and attributes of the commodity shipped. Empirical results are presented, and comparisons with proposed alternatives rate structures made. The model system is applied to the Houston-Chicago and Los-Angeles-Boston market pairs. The empirical results are quite encouraging: the model is shown to give modal share estimates which are plausible when compared with existing commodity flow information. The study is concluded with a summary of important findings and areas for further research. /Author/

• Corporate Authors:

  Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  Center for Transportation Studies, Room 1121
  Cambridge, MA  United States  02139
• Authors:
  • Wilson, L B
• Publication Date: 1977-7

Media Info

• Pagination: 171 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air cargo; City pairs; Demand; Disaggregate analysis; Economic forecasting; Forecasting; Markets; Mode choice; Operating costs; Policy; Regulations; Tariffs
• Old TRIS Terms: City pair market; Disagregate models; Modal selection
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Economics; Freight Transportation; Law; Planning and Forecasting; Policy;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00176718
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• Report/Paper Numbers: CTS 77-12
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 28 1978 12:00AM