USE OF PROBABILISTIC LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS MODEL OUTPUT

Life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) is a decisionmaking tool that highway agencies may employ in selecting an optimal pavement preservation strategy. Traditionally, LCCA models for pavement management use discrete input values representing a conservative best guess of each parameter. Thus, inherent uncertainty associated with each input parameter is not considered. There are situations, however, when this uncertainty may significantly influence the decisionmaking process. A probabilistic model was developed for deriving flexible pavement designs, generating preservation strategies, and evaluating the life-cycle agency and user costs of each alternative. Risk analysis was incorporated into the LCCA model so that the inherent uncertainty of each input parameter was considered. The LCCA model output consists of probability distributions describing the total, agency, and user present worth costs for each alternative. Also, probability distributions are used to describe the predicted performance of each alternative. This paper details the use of the probabilistic model results. Probability distributions describing the cost and performance for each alternative are presented, followed by a discussion on how the inclusion of inherent uncertainty in the LCCA model may affect the decisionmaking process.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Full conference proceedings available on CD-ROM.
• Corporate Authors:

  National Center for Asphalt Technology

  Auburn University, 277 Technology Parkway
  Auburn, AL  United States  36830
• Authors:
  • Reigle, J A
  • Zaniewski, John P
• Conference:
  • Second International Symposium on Maintenance and Rehabilitation of Pavements and Technological Control. Segundo Simposio Sobre Manutencao e Rehabilitacao de Pavimentos e Controle Technologico
  • Location: Auburn, Alabama
  • Date: 2001-7-29 to 2001-8-1
• Publication Date: 2001

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: 15p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Decision support systems; Flexible pavements; Highway operations; Life cycle analysis; Life cycle costing; Pavement design; Pavement maintenance; Pavement performance; Risk analysis; Uncertainty
• Subject Areas: Finance; Highways; Pavements; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00973938
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 01-125
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: May 17 2004 12:00AM