INTERCITY RAIL PATRONAGE IN THE NYC-BUFFALO CORRIDOR: MODELS AND FORECASTS

Using a 1975 data base of 31 city-pairs, forecasts are made of 1977-1985 rail patronage in the NYC-Buffalo corridor, using a two-stage modeling process. Total city-pair traffic by purpose is forecast using simple gravity formulations. The rail share is then estimated using binary logit competition models in which rail competes differentially with air, auto, and bus. Rail service and terminal quality variables, are included, as well as time, cost, and frequency. Pivot point analysis is used to increase the accuracy of the forecasts. Results show that rail competes differently with each mode. Against air, frequency and time ratios are the key variables; against auto, frequency and cost, and time ratios, and terminal quality are important; against bus, train service quality, frequency ratio, and time difference are important. Elasticities of demand vary considerably for each mode, thus violating the IIA assumption. If train, track, service, and terminal improvement are implemented as scheduled in the corridor over the next 5 years, 1980 corridor, rail volumes will increase 58-105% over 1975 levels. Without such improvements, however, the general expansion of total corridor traffic will not substantially increase rail volumes.

• Corporate Authors:

  New York State Department of Transportation

  Planning Division, State Campus, Building 4
  Albany, NY  United States  12232
• Authors:
  • Cohen, G S
  • Erlbaum, N S
  • Hartgen, D T
• Publication Date: 1977-5

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 107 p.
• Serial:
  • Volume: 3

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Corridors; Costs; Databases; Forecasting; High speed rail; Intercity transportation; Intercity travel; Mathematical models; Modal split; Mode choice; Passengers; Railroad transportation; Time; Travel demand
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Geographic Terms: New York (State)
• Old TRIS Terms: Modal selection
• Subject Areas: Finance; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00176717
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: New York State Department of Transportation
• Report/Paper Numbers: Prelim Res Rpt. N115
• Contract Numbers: DOT-OS-60124
• Files: TRIS, STATEDOT
• Created Date: May 31 1978 12:00AM