MODELLING PASSENGER DEMAND FOR PARKWAY RAIL STATIONS

Parkway stations are convenient out-of-town stations for interurban rail trips. There are currently 15 Parkway stations in Great Britain. This paper describes the development and application of a new Parkway station forecasting model that was undertaken as part of an update to the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, which is widely used in the British railway industry for recommended demand forecasting frameworks and associated parameters. The objective was to develop a model that had more desirable properties and was more straightforward to apply than the previously recommended procedure. The focus is entirely upon interurban journeys of over 80 km. The model forecasts the demand for Parkway stations based solely on rail ticket sales data. Two case studies are used to illustrate the model's properties. The nature of Parkway stations forces consideration of competition, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of a station choice component leads to a somewhat improved explanatory power and a more plausible generalized cost elasticity. In addition to the methodological developments, the model has provided generally reasonable elasticities and forecasts and has shown that Parkway users have different preferences than rail travelers in general. In a test based around a newly opened Parkway station, its forecasts are more accurate than the procedure it replaces. The station choice feature of the current model represents its main limitation, and further research will address this problem.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00494488
• Authors:
  • Lythgoe, W F
  • WARDMAN, M
• Publication Date: 2004-5

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 125-151
• Serial:
  • Transportation
  • Volume: 31
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISSN: 0049-4488
  • EISSN: 1572-9435
  • Serial URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/11116

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Choice models; Competition; Consumer preferences; Elasticity (Economics); Forecasting; Intercity transportation; Mathematical models; Railroad stations; Sales; Travel demand
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• Subject Areas: Economics; Finance; Operations and Traffic Management; Passenger Transportation; Railroads; Terminals and Facilities;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00972601
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Apr 11 2004 12:00AM