PREDICTION OF VEHICLE TRAVEL TIMES USING ANCILLARY INFORMATION SOURCES

Earlier work on predicting vehicle travel times concentrated on statistical techniques. Usually, the vehicle movement is modeled as a stochastic process and some sort of stochastic filtering or smoothing is adopted to predict the vehicle's future travel times. An example of such approach can be found in the route guidance system described where link travel times are estimated from probed vehicles. Other examples are presented for predicting the travel times of fleets of buses where each vehicle in the fleet is individually located In this paper, we model the movement of vehicles in the traffic network as a dynamic process that has a high degree of determinism that can be resolved by understanding and incorporating the factors that affect the evolution of this process. In order to achieve such an incorporation of information, we will propose a vehicle trajectory estimator algorithm that we will refer to as EPTA for Estimation of Plausible Trajectories Algorithm. We will first describe the rationale behind this modeling and the details of the implementation of EPTA. Then we will present the results and conclusions of applying EPTA to predict the travel times of simulated buses

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication Date: 2000. ITS Congress Association, Brussels. Remarks: Paper 3011 presented at 7th World Congress on ITS. Format: CD ROM
• Corporate Authors:

  Mitsubishi Denki Kabushiki Kaisha

  ,    

  Hokkaido Daigaku. Transportation and Traffic Engineering Laboratory

  ,    

  NTT DoCoMo, Inc.

  ,    

  Transek AB

  Sundbybergsvagen 1A
  17 173 Solna,   Sweden 

  Heusch/Boesefeldt G.m.b.H.

  Aachen,   Germany 

  Sophia University

  Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering
  ,   Japan 

  Tokyo Daigaku. Seisan Gijutsu Kenkyujo

  ,    

  Tamkang University

  Department of Civil Engineering, 151 Ying-Chuan Road
  Tamsui, Taipai  Taiwan  251

  MVA Limited

  ,    

  SEMALY

  ,    

  University of Technology, Sydney

  P.O. Box 123
  Broadway, New South Wales  Australia  2007

  BPI - Consult GmbH

  ,    

  France Telecom

  ,    

  Maros Srl

  ,    

  Nissan Jidosha Kabushiki Kaisha

  ,    

  Real Automovil Club de Catalunya

  ,    
• Authors:
  • Jarjees, G
  • Drane, Chris R
• Conference:
  • World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems (7th : 2000 : Turin Italy). Proceedings : from vision to reality [CD-ROM]
• Publication Date: 2000

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 9 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Buses; Computer algorithms; Traffic estimation; Travel time
• Subject Areas: Public Transportation; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00817193
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: UC Berkeley Transportation Library
• Files: PATH
• Created Date: Oct 4 2001 12:00AM