BINARY LOGIT COMPETITION MODELS OF NYC--BUFFALO INTERCITY RAIL PATRONAGE: DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION

Using a 1975 aggregate data base of 31 city-pairs, forecasts are made of 1977-1985 rail patronage in the NYC-Buffalo corridor, using a two-stage modeling process. Total city-pair traffic by purpose is forecast using simple gravity formulations relating annual volume to city size, government employment and hotel-motel sales receipts. Separate binary logit competition models are then developed in which rail competes differentially with air, auto, and bus, thus avoiding IIA assumptions. Rail service and terminal quality variables are included, as well as time, cost, and frequency. The total rail share is then determined algebraically from the binary models. Pivot-point analysis is used to increase the accuracy of the forecasts. Results show that rail competes differently with each mode. Against air, the key variables are frequency and time ratios; against auto, frequency, cost, time ratios, and terminal quality are important; against bus, train service quality, frequency ratio, and time difference are important. Elasticities of demand vary considerably for each mode and by distance, thus violating the IIA assumption. Forecasts show that if train, track, service, and terminal improvement are implemented as planned in the corridor over the next 5 years, 1980 rail volumes will increase 58-105% over 1975 levels, with most diversion coming from short-distance auto trips. Without such improvements, however, the general expansion of total corridor traffic will not substantially increase rail traffic.

• Corporate Authors:

  New York State Department of Transportation

  Planning Division, State Campus, Building 4
  Albany, NY  United States  12232
• Authors:
  • Cohen, G S
  • Erlbaum, N S
  • Hartgen, D T
• Publication Date: 1977-7

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 27 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air transportation; Automobiles; Buses; Competition; Corridors; Databases; Forecasting; High speed rail; Intercity transportation; Mathematical models; Modal split; Passenger service; Passengers; Public transit; Railroad transportation; Ridership; Scheduling; Traffic volume; Transportation modes; Travel budgets; Travel costs; Travel demand; Travel time; Urban transportation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Geographic Terms: New York (State)
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Railroads;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00172646
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: New York State Department of Transportation
• Report/Paper Numbers: Prelim Res Rpt 120
• Files: TRIS, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Mar 29 1978 12:00AM