CRITIQUE OF SAM PELTZMAN'S STUDY (1) THE EFFECTS OF AUTOMOBILE SAFETY REGULATION. (2) REPLY

The variables used in Peltzman's analysis were reviewed. It was concluded that some of them were arbitrarily chosen, that some were correlated, and that important factors were omitted. This may cause spurious and biased correlations. Peltzman's time series regression equations were reconstructed and found unstable, which makes them useless for predictions which are one basis for Peltzman's conclusions. The cross-sectional analyses were found to be unvalidated. Their results for important factors disagreed with those from the time series analysis. Peltzman's conclusions on the role of young drivers were compared with their actual accident involvement and found to disagree. To illustrate the misuse of trend models a "model" for pedestrian deaths was constructed which leads to conclusions. /TRRL/

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00014575
• Corporate Authors:

  Pergamon Press, Incorporated

  Maxwell House, Fairview Park
  Elmsford, NY  United States  10523
• Authors:
  • Joksch, H C
  • Peltzman, S
• Publication Date: 1976-6

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 129-142
• Serial:
  • Accident Analysis & Prevention
  • Volume: 8
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0001-4575
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00014575

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Crashes; Drivers; Fatalities; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Pedestrians; Regression analysis; Regulations; Safety
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• ITRD Terms: 1643: Accident; 1772: Driver; 1602: Fatality; 6473: Mathematical model; 1733: Pedestrian; 6588: Regression analysis; 1665: Safety
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Law; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00147959
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: May 11 1977 12:00AM