USING SCENARIOS IN REGIONAL TRANSPORT PLANNING

The purpose of this paper is to review the usefulness of incorporating scenario planning in the integrated transport planning process. Planners are increasingly questioning the value of planning processes based on the assumption that the past will largely resemble the future. Increasingly, traditional planning methodologies are being recognized as ineffective in dealing with the challenges posed by uncertainty. It is no longer safe to merely guess what changes may occur or rely on one particular outcome based on an extrapolation of past events. As a result, planners are increasingly turning to scenario planning to examine the implications of a variety of major changes in key drivers. The incorporation of scenario planning in the integrated transport planning process is not a new phenomenon. In the quest of transport agencies to ensure responsive and sustainable transport systems it is paramount that a range of futures be considered. The scenario planning process does not need to be a substantial commitment of time and resources. It can use simple extrapolations. Without having considered a range of scenarios organizations may embark on a path without considering its long-term viability or may not take up the challenge when transfixed by unfamiliarity. Most importantly, scenarios are not only for choosing an initial decision. They play a vital role in monitoring the continued fit of a decision or strategy with changing conditions. Scenarios themselves are useful for years to come if they are properly internalized by those who should be considering alternative futures when they make resource allocations and decisions.

• Record URL:
  http://arrbknowledge.com
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/087659229X
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Full conference proceedings available on CD-ROM.
• Corporate Authors:

  ARRB

  Melbourne, Victoria  Australia 
• Authors:
  • Louw, J
  • Mailloux, M
• Conference:
  • Proceedings of the 21st ARRB and 11th REAAA Conference. Transport. Our Highway to a Sustainable Future
  • Location: Cairns, Australia
  • Date: 2003-5-18 to 2003-5-23
• Publication Date: 2003

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Tables;
• Pagination: 14 p.
• Serial:
  • Publication of: ARRB Transport Research, Limited
  • Publisher: ARRB
  • ISSN: 0158-0728

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Decision making; Integrated systems; Methodology; Planning; Regional planning; Regional transportation; Transportation planning
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00964348
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 087659229X
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 15 2003 12:00AM