FORECASTING LONG-RUN AUTOMOBILE DEMAND

This paper presents for forecasting long-run automobile sales. The method is structured so that alternative policies for improving automobile fuel economy can be analyzed. The core of this forecasting procedure embodies two equations: one for estimating total new automobile sales in some future year, and one for detailing the composition, by vehicle size class, of total sales. Several secondary equations are used to introduce the effects of population and affluence into the forecasting process, to combine the various costs associated with owning and operations a vehicle, and to estimate the rate at which vehicles are retired from service. Application of the procedures described here requires detailed consideration of the automobile fleet composition throughout each year of the forecast period. This paper is confined to the sales projection components of that process and does not attempt to describe the extensive fleet accounting mechanism that has been developed in order to apply this component.

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/sr/sr169/sr169-003.pdf
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/0360859X
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Publication of these proceedings is sponsored by the Federal Energy Administration and the Transportation Systems Center, DOT.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Kulash, Damian J
• Conference:
  • Workshop on Strategies for Reducing Gasoline Consumption Through Improved Motor Vehicle Efficiency
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1975-10-7 to 1975-10-8
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 14-19
• Monograph Title: STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING GASOLINE CONSUMPTION THROUGH IMPROVED MOTOR VEHICLE EFFICIENCY
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Board Special Report
  • Issue Number: 169
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0360-859X

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Demand; Forecasting; Fuel consumption; Motor vehicles; Operating costs; Ownership; Sales
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Finance; Highways; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00142973
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Dec 22 1976 12:00AM