TRANSIT DEFICITS: A PROJECTION FOR NEW YORK STATE

This paper summarizes recent work at the New York State Department of Transportation on the future of transit operating deficits in the state. Transit cost projections are made for three inflation levels for each of 13 transit properties, which serve 95 percent of New York State riders. Based on 1964-1973 data, aggregate demand models relation ridership to fare and service levels are calibrated for each operation and are used to forecast ridership and revenues to 1980 under a series of fare and service assumptions. The analysis shows that (a) transit costs will about double during the 1974-1980 period, (b) fare elasticities for transit ridership are about 0.25 for large operations and 0.55 for smaller operations, (c) ridership will stabilize at about 2.0 billion riders annually if current fares and services are maintained, and (d) transit deficits (operating costs minus revenues) will rise from $248 million in 1973 to $1324 million by 1980. /Author/

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1976/589/589-004.pdf
• Summary URL:
  • http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=TRANSIT+DEFICITS%3a+A+PROJECTION+FOR+NEW+YORK+STATE&author=D.+Hartgen&author=S.+Howe&publication_year=1976
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03611981
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Taxation, Finance, and Pricing. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Authors:
  • Hartgen, David T
  • Howe, Stephen M
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 20-24
• Monograph Title: Urban transportation finance
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 589
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Deficits; Economics; Fares; Level of service; Operating costs; Revenues; Ridership; Transportation; Urban transportation
• Identifier Terms: New York State Department of Transportation
• Geographic Terms: New York (State)
• Old TRIS Terms: Projection
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Economics; Finance; Society; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00142352
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309025559
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Mar 30 1981 12:00AM