TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECASTING FOR PRIVATELY FUNDED TRANSPORT PROJECTS

The private sector has an increasing role in the provision and financing of transport projects. This has introduced new requirements for the processes required in forecasting revenue streams associated with such projects. In many cases most or all of the revenue will be derived directly from patronage through fares, direct tolls or shadow toll systems. Thus considerable emphasis is placed upon the quality of the patronage forecasting for such projects. In addition to a 'central case' forecast, the private sector requires detailed analysis of risks associated with the project and quantification of outcomes for a specified probability range or ranges. This paper discusses a number of recent and current audit and monitoring projects undertaken by the authors for privately funded transport projects. These have shown wide variation in the techniques used and the quality of the results achieved. The key tasks are examined in detail, including: (a) Study design; (b) Data collection; (c) Data analysis and checking; (d) Model construction; (e) Model operation; (f) Forecasting of internal parameters (e.g. values of time); (g) Forecasting of external parameters (e.g. economic growth); (h) Result presentation and checking; (i) Risk analysis; and (j) Audit. A summary is presented of the key factors underlying significant errors and deficiencies leading to forecast inaccuracy, together with the key success factors for the situations where good levels of forecast accuracy have been achieved. The paper concludes by providing a set of guidelines forming a 'best practice' guide for the patronage forecasting of such transport projects. These guidelines will recognise the requirements of different project types (e.g. road or public transport schemes), project sizes and funding arrangements. For the covering abstract see IRRD E104621.

• Record URL:
  http://abstracts.aetransport.org/conference/index/id/5
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0860503224
• Corporate Authors:

  PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

  Glenthorne House, Hammersmith Grove
  London W6OL9,   England 
• Authors:
  • BRETT, A
  • Snelson, P
• Conference:
  • FINANCING INFRASTRUCTURE. PROCEEDINGS OF SEMINAR C, EUROPEAN TRANSPORT CONFERENCE, 27-29 SEPTEMBER 1999, CAMBRIDGE, UK. VOLUME P431
• Publication Date: 1999-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 47-51

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Auditing; Bridges; Conferences; Financing; Forecasting; Freeways; Income; Mathematical models; Private enterprise; Public transit; Rapid transit; Risk taking; Road construction; Toll roads
• ITRD Terms: 9128: Audit; 3455: Bridge; 8525: Conference; 244: Financing; 132: Forecast; 256: Income; 6473: Mathematical model; 2752: Motorway; 9118: Private; 744: Public transport; 1181: Rapid transit system; 2259: Risk taking; 3665: Road construction; 2702: Toll road
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Bridges and other structures; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00790444
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• ISBN: 0-86050-322-4
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Apr 11 2000 12:00AM