METHODS OF PREDICTING RURAL TRANSIT DEMAND

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, under Executive Order from the Governor, is responsible for developing a plan for a comprehensive rural transportation system for Pennsylvania. The research and methodology included in this report is a crucial part of the development of a comprehensive rural transportation program. There is a pressing need for public transit systems in rural areas. In order to operate such systems efficiently and effectively, local planners must have accurate projections of the number of riders that will demand service. Using data from 100 existing rural transportation systems, simulation models of factors influencing the number of riders were developed. The Report provides demand estimation models for both total system-wide and route specific transit systems. Separate models are developed for fixed route and demand responsive systems. The report also includes guidelines necessary to properly utilize these models. The text is presented in a way that local and regional planning staffs can easily determine the demand for rural public transportation by knowing the population characteristics of the area being studied and the characteristics of the proposed transit system.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Sponsored by Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and conducted in cooperation with DOT, Federal Highway Administration.
• Corporate Authors:

  Ecosometrics, Incorporated

  4715 Cordell Avenue
  Bethesda, MD  United States  20814
• Authors:
  • Burkhardt, J E
  • Lago, A M
• Publication Date: 1976-4-28

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 168 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Demand; Demand responsive transportation; Forecasting; Public transit; Ridership; Rural areas; Simulation; Transportation planning
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00149838
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: RR-101 Final Rpt.
• Contract Numbers: Penn DOT Agr #54113
• Files: NTIS, TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 27 1981 12:00AM