ECONOMIC FACTORS AND TRAFFIC CRASHES IN NEW ZEALAND

This study aimed to examine the changes in the trend and seasonal patterns of fatal crashes in New Zealand in relation to changes in economic conditions from 1970-94. The Harvey Structural Time Series Model (STSM), an unobserved components class of model, was used to estimate the quarterly number of fatal traffic crashes. Independent variables included distance traveled, unemployment rate (UER), real gross domestic product per capita (RGDP), the proportion of motorcycles, the proportion of young males in the population, alcohol consumption per capita, the open road speed limit, and dummy variables for the 1973 and 1979 oil crises and seat belt wearing laws. Distance traveled, RGDP, UER, and alcohol consumption per capita were significant factors in explaining the short-term dynamics of fatal crashes with the effect of RGDP greater than UER. Increases in either RGDP or UER were related to decreases in fatal crashes. The STSM is a feasible approach to modeling the effect of economic factors on traffic crashes while accounting for unobserved components.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00036846
• Corporate Authors:

  Chapman and Hall, Limited

  2-6 Boundary Row
  London, SE1 8HN,   England 
• Authors:
  • Scuffham, P A
• Publication Date: 2003-1

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 179-188
• Serial:
  • Applied Economics
  • Volume: 35
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Chapman and Hall, Limited
  • ISSN: 0003-6846

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile driving; Crash data; Fatalities; Highway safety; Human factors in crashes; Statistical trends; Traffic crashes
• Geographic Terms: New Zealand
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00943793
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 5 2003 12:00AM