THE PROPAGATION OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS: AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS

This paper investigates the stability of contemporary transport demand model outputs by quantifying the variability in model inputs, such as zonal socioeconomic data and trip generation rates, and simulating the propagation of their variation through a series of common demand models over a 25-zone network. Results suggest that uncertainty is likely to compound itself--rather than attenuate--over a series of models. Mispredictions at early stages in multi-stage models appear to amplify across later stages. While this effect may be counteracted by equilibrium assignment of traffic flows across a network, predicted traffic flows are highly and positively correlated.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/05701864
• Corporate Authors:

  Springer Verlag

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  New York, NY  United States  10010
• Authors:
  • Zhao, Y
  • Kockelman, K M
• Publication Date: 2002-2

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 145-163
• Serial:
  • Annals of Regional Science
  • Volume: 36
  • Issue Number: 1
  • Publisher: Springer Verlag
  • ISSN: 0570-1864

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Networks; Traffic flow; Traffic models; Traffic simulation; Travel behavior; Travel demand; Trip generation; Uncertainty
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00942115
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: May 9 2003 12:00AM