DO WE TRUST SIMULATION MODELS?

Transport planning involves the use of computer models as a tool for predicting the effects of real life changes to a traffic network. However, relatively little work seems to be done on comparing the results of such models, and thus questioning their relative reliability. This paper attempts to address this by comparing four different simulation models on representations of the same road network. The models used are the well-known models SATURN and CONTRAM, STEER (developed at the University of York) and the Path Flow Estimator (developed at the University of Newcastle). These models represent a spectrum of simulation modelling from dynamic micro-simulation model to real time static macro-simulation. Initial results obtained as part of the AIUTO project show that STEER, SATURN and PFE when simulating a real-life scheme, implemented on the York Network, produce results which, while broadly in agreement, differed considerably in the details. For the covering abstract see IRRD E103853.

• Record URL:
  • http://abstracts.aetransport.org/conference/index/id/4
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0860503135
• Corporate Authors:

  PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

  Glenthorne House, Hammersmith Grove
  London W6OL9,   England 
• Authors:
  • CLEGG, R G
• Conference:
  • TRANSPORTATION PLANNING METHODS. PROCEEDINGS OF SEMINAR D HELD AT AET EUROPEAN TRANSPORT CONFERENCE, LOUGHBOROUGH UNIVERSITY, UK, 14-18 SEPTEMBER 1998. VOLUME P423
• Publication Date: 1998-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: p. 265-76

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Computer programs; Conferences; Evaluation and assessment; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Networks; Planning; Research projects; Roads; Simulation; Size; Transportation; Urban areas
• Uncontrolled Terms: Macro; Micro; Modifications; Road networks; Transportation networks
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• ITRD Terms: 8525: Conference; 9020: Evaluation (assessment); 132: Forecast; 9041: Macro; 6473: Mathematical model; 9045: Micro; 9048: Modification; 1054: Network (traffic); 143: Planning; 8557: Research project; 1053: Road network; 9103: Simulation; 8645: Software; 1155: Transport; 8119: United Kingdom; 313: Urban area
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00782839
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• ISBN: 0-86050-313-5
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Feb 7 2000 12:00AM