MODELLING BUILD-UP OF DEMAND FOR NEW TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

Traditional forecasting methods typically give forecasts of demand for new transport projects without giving any information about how long that demand will take to build up. This can be of critical importance on projects with substantial amounts of private finance involved, where the project NPV, and hence its viability, can be seriously affected by the time it takes for revenue flows to develop. Forecasts are usually based on some measure of the relative attractiveness of the new service compared to the alternatives. This assumes perfect information on the part of users; in other words they can and do make choices based on correct information such as they might do in a Stated Preference survey. In fact people do not necessarily have this information available to them, and may not even seek it out. This paper presents a simulation of how market share evolves, showing how build up is affected by rates of exposure to information and services. It is shown that various build-up curves can be produced, depending on assumptions made about frequency of use, marketing tactics and collective 'memory'. Strategies for reducing the build-up time are developed, with particular regard to marketing and market research work. The paper is presented in the context of a specific rail investment project. For the covering abstract, see IRRD 899083.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0860503046
• Corporate Authors:

  PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

  Glenthorne House, Hammersmith Grove
  London W6OL9,   England 
• Authors:
  • SWANSON, J
  • KINCAID, I
  • Hewitt, S
• Conference:
  • TRANSPORTATION PLANNING METHODS VOLUME 1. PROCEEDINGS OF SEMINAR E HELD AT PTRC EUROPEAN TRANSPORT FORUM, BRUNEL UNIVERSITY, ENGLAND, 1-5 SEPTEMBER 1997. VOLUME P414
• Publication Date: 1997-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: p. 23-32

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Conferences; Consumer preferences; Demand; Forecasting; Investments; Marketing; Mathematical models; Modal split; Mode choice; Passenger information systems; Public transit; Railroad transportation; Simulation; Travel demand
• Uncontrolled Terms: Increase
• ITRD Terms: 287: Attractiveness (transp); 8525: Conference; 285: Demand (econ); 132: Forecast; 9032: Increase; 227: Investment; 277: Marketing; 6473: Mathematical model; 675: Modal split; 8786: Passenger information; 744: Public transport; 1173: Rail bound transport; 9103: Simulation
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Finance; Public Transportation; Railroads;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00752528
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• ISBN: 0-86050-304-6
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Sep 18 1998 12:00AM