TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE INTERCITY PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS. VOLUME 4: SCENARIOS

Four alternative future states of society or background scenarios are described, and future intercity transportation systems called transportation scenarios are outlined, one for each background scenario. A report is also presented of a quantitative analysis of the transportation scenarios, including patronage estimates for the various postulated intercity systems. The scenarios which have been developed for analyzing and evaluating alternative future intercity transportation technologies in the next 25 to 50 years are based on the analysis of relevant social and economic trends. A qualitative description of intercity transportation systems as well as how the systems developed from those in operation today are presented. The Transportation Scenario I is characterized by national emphasis on economic growth, encouragement of business, and substantial advances in research and technology that have been placed in service on a large scale mostly by private industry. The setting for Scenario II includes national restraint on big business, encouragement of small business, and decentralization of population. The third Scenario is characterized by concensus-oriented public decision-making, increasing problems and inefficiencies in both the public and private sector, and little innovation. The setting for the fourth Scenario is characterized by a strong government focusing its programs on achieving a variety of social welfare goals.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Prepared by a technology assessment team (Peat, Marwick, Mitchell and Company; California University, Berkeley; Stanford University; Gellman Research Associates, Incorporated; and Science Applications, Incorporated) for DOT and NASA. See also Volume 1, N76-24075, RRIS 23 138130; Bulletin 7802.
• Corporate Authors:

  Department of Transportation

  1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Publication Date: 1976-3

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 205 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Competition; Decentralization; Decision making; Intercity transportation; Intercity travel; Passenger transportation; Passengers; Policy; Population; Private enterprise; Quantitative analysis; Research; Ridership; Socioeconomic factors; Technological forecasting; Technology; Transportation modes; Travel demand
• Uncontrolled Terms: Welfare
• Old TRIS Terms: Future policies; Government policies; Substitutes
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Economics; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Passenger Transportation; Policy; Railroads; Research; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00142234
• Record Type: Publication
• Contract Numbers: NAS2-8730
• Files: TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Nov 23 1978 12:00AM