FORECASTING CAR OWNERSHIP: A NEW APPROACH - PART 1

The article describes and criticises the two main approaches to forecasting car ownership used in Great Britain. It concludes that they produce very different results and that neither is altogether satisfactory for producing national car ownership forecasts. Arising from these criticisms it suggests an alternative approach combining the best features of each of the current main techniques and emphasises the need to take car use into account in estimating ownership. In part 2 of the article to be published in the September issue, national car ownership forecasts using such a model will be presented and their consequences discussed.(a) /TRRL/

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00410683
• Corporate Authors:

  Printerhall Limited

  29 Newmart Street
  London W1P 3PE,   England 
• Authors:
  • Mullen, P
  • White, M
• Publication Date: 1977-7-8

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: p. 354-361
• Serial:
  • Traffic Engineering & Control
  • Volume: 18
  • Issue Number: 7/8
  • Publisher: Hemming Group, Limited
  • ISSN: 0041-0683
  • Serial URL: http://www.tecmagazine.com/

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Cross sections; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Methodology; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Percent saturation; Population; Time
• Uncontrolled Terms: Increase; Models; Use
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• Old TRIS Terms: User characteristics
• ITRD Terms: 1243: Car; 6404: Cross section; 5907: Degree of saturation (mater); 132: Forecast; 9032: Increase; 6473: Mathematical model; 9102: Method; 335: Population; 5414: Time; 8119: United Kingdom; 9084: Use; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00165604
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
• Report/Paper Numbers: Analytic
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Feb 16 1978 12:00AM