POPULATION FORECASTING IN SMALL URBAN AREAS BY A DELPHI PROCESS (ABRIDGEMENT)

In an attempt to determine the current and future transportation needs of the Blacksburg area, current socioeconomic and demographic data were collected, and a methodology was developed for forecasting population through a structured interaction among several selected participants. The Delphi process used here involves the use of structured interactions among a representative group of community leaders regarding the future development trends of the community. The purpose of the process is to reach a group consensus among the participants through a program of individual interrogations that are arranged at intervals, and that supply information and opinion feedback. The selection of the panel of advisors for conducting the Delphi process is discussed. Details are outlined of the 3 rounds comprising the Delphi process: a questionnaire survey designed to provide participants with an assessment of socioeconomic characteristics; a summary of, and a commentary on data collected in the first round; a questionnaire and summary of round 2 input. The observation is made that this Delphi process would be cost effective for only special situations in which conventional methodologies are inappropriate.

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1976/617/617-010.pdf
• Summary URL:
  http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=POPULATION+FORECASTING+IN+SMALL+URBAN+AREAS+BY+A+DELPHI+PROCESS+(ABRIDGEMENT)&author=C.+Badger&author=W.+Higgins&author=B.+Ketron&publication_year=1976
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03611981
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Urban Activity Systems. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Authors:
  • Badger, Charles M
  • Higgins, William J
  • Ketron, Billy D
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 45-49
• Monograph Title: Social and economic factors in transportation planning
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 617
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Needs assessment; Population; Public participation; Questionnaires; Small cities; Social values; Socioeconomic factors; Transportation; Transportation planning; Urban areas
• Old TRIS Terms: Community values
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Economics; Society; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00163022
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309025966
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Oct 13 1977 12:00AM