NEW MODEL FOR PREDICTING FREEWAY INCIDENTS AND INCIDENT DELAYS

This paper presents a new model that predicts the number of freeway incidents and associated delays based on general freeway segment characteristics, traffic volumes, and incident management procedures. The model is intended to be used in planning capacity-enhancing freeway improvements and incident management programs. Estimates of incident frequencies, severity, durations, and delays are provided for seven standard incident types, each of which represents a significant fraction of total unplanned incidents and has severity and/or duration characteristics substantially different from the others. In addition to describing the incident prediction model, the paper addresses the need for a coordinated national strategy for collecting incident data, with particular attention to urban freeways. It concludes that the incident data systems that have evolved in several urban areas, often in connection with freeway service patrols and incident response team activities, already provide a valuable nationwide data resource for understanding incident patterns and their variations. However, better national coordination of locally collected incident data would be helpful in addressing issues beyond the scope of the local concerns for which virtually all current systems were originally designed. Specific areas for improvements include the definitions of incident types, descriptions of incident locations, and data recording the critical times during incidents such as when detection, response, and clearing occur.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/8674831
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  345 East 47th Street
  New York, NY  United States  10017-2398
• Authors:
  • Sullivan, E C
• Publication Date: 1997-7

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 267-275
• Serial:
  • Journal of Transportation Engineering
  • Volume: 123
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 0733-947X
  • Serial URL: https://ascelibrary.org/journal/jtepbs

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Data collection; Emergency response time; Empirical methods; Freeways; Incident detection; Reaction time; Strategic planning; Traffic delays; Traffic mitigation; Traffic volume
• Uncontrolled Terms: Mitigation
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; I10: Economics and Administration; I80: Accident Studies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00738427
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Jul 23 1997 12:00AM