This report updates results, described in a previous interim report, of efforts to develop short range (0-6 hr) thunderstorm forecasts for aviation. In the 0-2 hr range, systematic comparisons were made of the capabilities of three techniques of varying complexity in predicting the movement of radar echoes associated with thundery activity. Ten- and 30-minute data sequences of radar data were used produce 10-, 30-, 60-, and 90-minute forecasts. Results show that in general, the complex technique has little advantage over simple techniques which can be implemented locally on the mini-computer. In the 2-6 hr range, a combination of classical and model output statistics (MOS) were used to develop probability forecasts of thunderstorm activity over most of the U. S. east of the Rockies. Forecasts valid for the periods 1700-2100, 2000-2400, and 2300-0300 GMT are now available for the spring and summer seasons and are being transmitted to the field three times daily by teletype.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • See also AD-A025 958.
  • Corporate Authors:

    National Weather Service

    Techniques Development Laboratory
    Silver Spring, MD  United States 
  • Authors:
    • Alaka, M A
    • Charba, J P
    • Elvander, R C
  • Publication Date: 1977-7

Media Info

  • Pagination: 36 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00167331
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Report/Paper Numbers: FAA-RD-77-40 Final Rpt.
  • Contract Numbers: DOT-FA74WAI-488
  • Files: NTIS, TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 8 1978 12:00AM