FORECASTING AIR PASSENGERS IN A MULTIAIRPORT REGION

Traditional air passenger forecasting has been done for single airport regions generally by estimating a region's share of a national forecast. This method is inadequate in a multiairport region where forecasts must be distributed geographically. In the Washington-Baltimore region, a method similar to that used in ground transportation planning was applied. A share of the market forecast was developed based on a national forecast by using real yield, per capita disposable income, and government purchases as independent variables. Another forecast was completed based on an on-board origin-destination survey and regional socioeconomic data, including population, government employment, nongovernment employment, and per capita income. The 2 forecasts were then adjusted to provide air passenger trip generation by aviation analysis zone. This forecast was then distributed to other U.S. cities based on an analysis of socioeconomic data for Office of Business Economics analysis areas, including manufacturing product and wholesale and retail trade product. The result was forecasts from aviation analysis zone to other U.S. city for use in distribution. /Author/

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1976/588/588-001.pdf
• Record URL:
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Special Committee on Air Transport Activities of the Transportation Research Board. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Rubin, David
  • Fagan, Larry N
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 1-5
• Monograph Title: Airport and air transport planning
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 588
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air transportation; Airports; Demand; Economic forecasting; Employment; Forecasting; Income; Origin and destination; Passenger transportation; Passengers; Socioeconomic factors; Transportation planning; Trip generation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Socioeconomic data
• Old TRIS Terms: Airport forecasts; Empolyment
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Economics; Passenger Transportation; Society; Terminals and Facilities;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00159708
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309025540
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Sep 20 1977 12:00AM