QUICK POLICY EVALUATION WITH BEHAVIORAL DEMAND MODELS (ABRIDGEMENT)

This paper presents methods that apply disaggregate probability choice demand models to a sample of sketch plan zones, to evaluate various automotive pollution control strategies in the Los Angeles region. The results presented here indicate that disaggregate demand models hold promise for quick evaluation of transportation-related policies. The models were used to simulate the effects of various pollution control strategies by projecting 1974 base case trip behavior and the change that ould have been caused by gasoline taxes, emissions taxes, parking surcharges, and bus system improvements. The resulting predictions are comparable with other research efforts; for example, the implied elasticity of gasoline in Los Angeles in 1974 was between 0.19 and 0.24, which corresponds with many econometric estimates of short-run gasoline demand.

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1976/610/610-009.pdf
• Record URL:
  https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=QUICK+POLICY+EVALUATION+WITH+BEHAVIORAL+DEMAND+MODELS+(ABRIDGEMENT)&author=F.+Dunbar&publication_year=1976
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309025850
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Dunbar, Frederick C
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 47-49
• Monograph Title: Passenger travel demand forecasting
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 610
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air quality management; Bus transportation; Choice models; Disaggregate analysis; Evaluation; Exhaust gases; Forecasting; Gasoline; Improvements; Mode choice; Pay parking; Taxation; Transportation policy; Travel; Travel demand
• Uncontrolled Terms: Parking costs; Trip
• Old TRIS Terms: Disaggregate models; Modal selection
• Subject Areas: Highways; Motor Carriers; Operations and Traffic Management; Policy;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00157829
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309025850
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Sep 28 1977 12:00AM