FORCASTING PATRONAGE ON NEW TRANSIT ROUTES

A modeling effort is reported in which a logistic curve can accurately describe the relationship between route patronage and elapsed time, and a transit service trial period of only 30 days is necessary for model calibration. Such a model can predict a new transit route's ridership potential without an extended trial period, and could, therefore, lead to a more efficient allocation of available transit resources. For this model, it was assumed not only that a transit route will attract an ultimate patronage level but also that the change in ridership at any given time is directly proportional to the product of the current ridership and the difference between this patronage and the asymptotic value. The patronage variable was standardized relative to the first day's ridership performance. The mathematical relationships are set forth and comments are made on the model sensitivity and validation.

• Record URL:
  https://hdl.handle.net/2027/mdp.39015021808764?urlappend=%3Bseq=301
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00410713
• Corporate Authors:

  Eno Transportation Foundation

  1250 I Street, NW, Suite 750
  Washington, DC  United States  20005
• Authors:
  • Cherwony, W
  • Polin, L
• Publication Date: 1977-4

Media Info

• Features: Figures; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 287-295
• Serial:
  • Traffic Quarterly
  • Volume: 31
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Eno Transportation Foundation
  • ISSN: 0041-0713

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Mathematical models; Public transit; Resource allocation; Ridership; Sensitivity; Validation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00157777
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 8 1981 12:00AM